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12 June 2017, 08:46
Chris Coleman feels Wales must win the remaining four qualifiers to top our World Cup group.
Wales held Group D leaders Serbia to a 1-1 draw in Belgrade thanks to a penalty from Aaron Ramsey.
Aleksandar Mitrovic equalised to keep Serbia four points ahead of third-placed Wales with four games to play.
The Republic of Ireland stay second level on points with Serbia after being held 1-1 at home by Austria.
"I think realistically if we want to finish first, (we need) four wins," manager Coleman said.
"If we want to take our chance in a play-off it's at least three wins and a draw. Mathematically that's probably what we need.
"But Serbia have to go to Ireland and they have to go to Austria, they can't all take three points.
"The group is still very much in the balance. We're still chasing, four points, but let's see what happens."
Wales will resume their programme at home to Austria and away to bottom-placed Moldova in September.
Coleman should be able to call on Real Madrid forward Gareth Bale, who missed the frenetic Belgrade draw through suspension.
"We'll be happier with a point than Serbia, but I've got mixed emotions really," Coleman said.
"We took the lead, but this is such a tough place to come to play and Serbia are a good team.
"I think we learned a lot from Serbia five years ago when we were beaten heavily (6-1 in Novi Sad), so we knew we had to come here and play hard.
"We had a game plan and the players stuck to that, I'm really proud of them.
"I felt at the end we were looking to win it, we had two or three breakaways where it could have been different.''