Middle East on a knife edge on eve of Gaza ceasefire talks

14 August 2024, 09:44 | Updated: 14 August 2024, 12:11

On the eve of crucial Gaza ceasefire talks, Iran has dramatically upped the ante.

For two weeks Israel has faced a nerve-wracking wait for Iranian retaliation for the assassinations of two Hezbollah and Hamas figures in Tehran and Beirut.

Now Iranian officials say Iran will attack Israel directly if Gaza ceasefire talks, scheduled tomorrow in Qatar, fail to reach an agreement.

The development is double-edged for Israelis.

On the one hand, it means they might escape being attacked if both sides make sufficient concessions in the talks in Doha to strike a deal.

On the other, Iran's move will be seen by many as holding a gun to the head of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the middle of fragile negotiations.

Giving into such pressure might look weak. That might make the move counterproductive.

Either way, it makes the talks in Qatar even more consequential.

The prospects of success, however, appear to be fading.

Hamas' senior official in Lebanon says it will not be sending a delegation as things currently stand. Dr Ahmad Abdul Hadi told Sky News that Israel is "setting new conditions and committed the Tabi'in School massacre and are still committing massacres".

Israel is in turn accusing Hamas of intransigence. Much of this will be posturing ahead of talks but the signs are not encouraging.

There are reportedly several sticking points.

Hamas wants Palestinian men to be allowed to return to their homes in the north of Gaza and Israel wants them screened for weapons en route.